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What Does Project 2025 Say?

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On November 5, 2024, the United States Elected Donald J. Trump to a second term. The day after that, his allies gleefully admitted that Project 2025 was their – and his – agenda the entire time.

This is what we’re up against.

What's the Mexico City Policy (AKA, the "Global Gag Rule", AKA, Do Abortion Bans Work?

The following is a portion of the contextual analysis for Section 2.6: Agency for International Development. These bite-sized briefs are intended to directly answer particular questions.

Word count: 567. Average estimated reading time: 2 minutes.

The Trump Administration reinstated and expanded the Mexico City Policy1, which bars U.S. federal funding to foreign organizations that perform or promote abortion. USAID was required to follow this policy, making it central to its foreign aid distribution. The promotion of international religious freedom became a greater priority under the Trump Administration, with USAID placing a stronger emphasis on religious rights as part of its development agenda. This aligned with broader administration efforts, particularly under Vice President Mike Pence, who championed religious freedom globally.

As for an “unprecedented” genocide response infrastructure, USAID, in partnership with other government entities, built on existing efforts to respond to genocide and mass atrocities. For example, the Atrocities Prevention Board and programs to assist persecuted minorities, especially in areas like Iraq and Syria where religious minorities were targeted by ISIS, were strengthened. While these initiatives were ramped up, they built on pre-existing efforts rather than actually creating something unprecedented.

So, there’s the context; let’s unpack some of that.

A study done by KFF2 (formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation) dissected the results of the Mexico City Policy, also known as the “global gag rule.” The study found that the result of Trump administration reinstating the Mexico City Policy was:

  • Increased abortion rates
  • Increased pregnancy
  • Decreased contraceptive prevalence
  • Disruption/gaps in family planning and other services
  • Reduced service integration
  • Over-implementation and chilling effect
  • Confusion
  • Loss of civil society/NGO coordination and partnerships
  • Increased administrative burden

Basically, it resulted in the exact opposite of its stated goals. Additional tidbits:

“Kavakli and Rotondi (2022), using data from 134 countries between 1990-2015, found that, when in place, the policy was associated with higher maternal and child mortality and HIV incidence rates. In addition, their analysis of individual data in 30 countries found that women had less access to modern contraception and were more likely to report that their pregnancy was not desired. Finally, they used their findings to estimate that reinstatement of the policy by the Trump administration could result in 108,000 maternal and child deaths and 360,000 new HIV infections over a four year period.”

“Brooks et al. (2019), using data from 26 countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995-2014, found that when the policy was in place, abortion rates rose by 40%, use of modern contraceptives declined by 14%, and pregnancies increased by 12%.”

In other words, reducing access to contraceptives and family planning services, forcing pregnancy, and banning abortion does not result in less abortion. It results in FAR more abortion that is more likely to be unsafe for the mother because of the oppressive laws.

One analysis estimates that a 10% decline in contraceptive use3 would lead to a 20-90% increase in abortions. From the linked article:

“No matter your politics, cutting down on unsafe abortions is an important goal,” Miller said. “Frankly, because many abortions are performed under unsafe circumstances, our analysis likely underestimates the full consequences of the policy for women and their health.”

The Guttmacher Institute described the Trump administration’s “unprecedented and unjustified” expansion of the global gag rule as “part of a weaponization of U.S. foreign assistance to systematically target global sexual and reproductive health and rights programs.” [Source]4

In short, the results of Trump’s policies (and the ones Primorac is praising here) were disastrous. Regardless of one’s personal feelings about abortions, it makes zero logical sense to support policies that result in more of them. Simply put, bans don’t work.

Sources Cited:

  1. The Mexico City PolicyWikipedia.
  2. Kates, Jennifer; Moss, Kellie (July 17, 2024), Impact of the Mexico City Policy: Literature ReviewKFF.
  3. Grant, Eva Taylor (June 28, 2019), New Study Finds Mexico City Policy Increased Abortion by 40%Center for Global Development.
  4. Ahmed, Zara; Guttmacher Institute (April 28, 2020), The Unprecedented Expansion of the Global Gag Rule: Trampling Rights, Health, and Free SpeechThe Guttmacher Institute.