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What Does Project 2025 Say?

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On November 5, 2024, the United States Elected Donald J. Trump to a second term. The day after that, his allies gleefully admitted that Project 2025 was their – and his – agenda the entire time.

This is what we’re up against.

Promise: Mass Deportations

Promise:

“On Day 1, we will begin the largest deportation operation in American History.”

Context:

This isn’t a new thing, although he did hammer on it a lot more this time around. He promised mass deportations as part of his 2016 campaign.1 This time, however, there are no guardrails. As I pointed out in this bite-sized brief2, mass deportations would reduce the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1.4% in the first year, and cumulative GDP would be reduced by $4.7 trillion over 10 years.

Robert J. Shapiro wrote in May 20243 “By any measure, a policy that eliminated 4.5 percent of the current workforce, including large numbers of college and high school graduates, would set off serious economic tremors. Using Okun’s Law on the relationship between rising unemployment and GDP, a 4.5 percent drop in employment is associated with depressing GDP growth by more than 9 percentage points. This estimate also includes the impact on other jobs. A recent study of much more modest programs to deport immigrants found clear evidence that they cost other American jobs. By one calculation, deporting 1 million immigrants would lead to 88,000 additional employment losses by other Americans, suggesting that Trump’s program could cost up to 968,000 Americans their jobs on top of the 7.1 million jobs held by immigrants up for deportation.”

American Immigration Council, an immigrant advocacy group, estimated the cost of deporting 13 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally as $968 billion over a little more than a decade.9

So right away, this is a very expensive terrible idea. All it’s doing is satisfying Trump’s – and his supporters’ – racism and white supremacy. It’s also worthy of note that Joe Biden deported more illegal immigrants in fiscal year 202310 than Trump did during ANY of the years of his first term.

Feasibility:

Well, he didn’t get it done during his first term for various reasons. This time, there won’t be any adults in the room or any pushback. It’s going to be wildly costly to round people up and deport them. Cynically (but not unrealistically), I wonder how long before they decide that rounding them up and simply exterminating them is more cost-effective than deporting them.

For Trump’s part, he said on NBC News on November 7, 20244, that his administration would have “no choice” but to carry this out. He went on to say “there is no price tag.” So, he doesn’t care how expensive it will be.

Acting ICE Director Patrick Lechleitner said back in July (2024) that mass deportation would be a huge financial and logistical challenge5. As for how it would be carried out, Trump has told his crowds, and told Time Magazine in April 20246, that he would use local law enforcement as well as potentially that National Guard and active duty military.

The cost isn’t deterring Trump’s team. From Linked article 5: “Trump comes back in January,” Tom Homan said, “I’ll be on his heels coming back, and I will run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen.”

In a statement, Trump campaign Trump national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “A majority of Americans want mass deportations for illegal immigrants. […] On Day One back in the White House, President Trump will begin the largest criminal deportation operation of illegal immigrants and restore the rule of law.”

The minute Trump won, his advisors started planning logistics:

“As a first step, Trump’s advisers are discussing issuing a national emergency declaration at the border on his first day in office, which his team thinks would allow him to move money from the Pentagon to pay for wall construction and to assist with immigrant detention and deportation. But the legality of such a move is unclear. A national emergency, Trump’s advisers think, also would unlock the ability to use military bases for immigrant detention and military planes to help carry out deportations.” [Source]7.

So, will the military carry out Trump’s orders, lawful or not? That remains to be seen, but:

“General John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff in his first term, told journalists during the campaign that Trump had repeatedly mused that he hankered after having military commanders that were personally loyal to him in the manner German generals showed Adolf Hitler.

Rachel VanLandingham, a former US air force attorney, said dangers of the military being used to suppress internal opposition were high.

“They will follow President Trump’s orders, particularly because the president can lawfully order domestic use of the military in a wide variety of situations,” she told the Post.

“There is huge risk in disobeying a president’s order, and seemingly little risk in obeying it.” [Source]8.

For the military to do this, they’d be defying the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, which prohibits the Army (and later extended to include the Air Force) from acting as domestic law enforcement. It’s also just as likely that this would look a lot like Eisenhower’s 1954 Operation Wetback, which used border patrol and local law enforcement to carry out mass raids and deportations. Operation Wetback resulted in human rights abuses and was ultimately halted. Needless to say, if you see Posse Comitatus overturned, you’ll know what to expect.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the “majority” of Americans want mass deportations, but this is not true. Edison Research exit polls showed 39% of voters said most immigrants in the U.S. illegally should be deported while 56% said they should be allowed to apply for legal status. [Source]9

Promise Kept?

It wasn’t kept in 2016. 2025 and beyond remains to be seen. Although any promise that would cost nearly a trillion dollars in logistical costs, plus skyrocket food prices, unemployment, and cause all of the needless damage this promises to cause, is a promise I’d rather not see kept.

Is this promise of Trump's also mentioned in Project 2025?

Sources Cited:

  1. McCaskill, Nolan D. (August 31 2016), Trump promises wall and massive deportation program, Politico.
  2. What Does Project 2025 Say? (2024), What happens if we mass-deport all illegal immigrants?, Bite-Sized Briefs.
  3. Shapiro, Robert J. (May 21, 2024), Trump’s Plans for Mass Deportation Would Be an Economic Disaster, Washington Monthly.
  4. Welker, Kristen; Marquez, Alexandra (November 7, 2024), Trump says there’s ‘no price tag’ for his mass deportation plan, NBC News.
  5. Strickler, Laura; Martinez, Didi; Atkins, Chloe; Ainsley, Julia (July 16, 2024), How would mass deportation of migrants under Trump actually work?, NBC News.
  6. Time Staff (April 30, 2024), Read the Full Transcripts of Donald Trump’s Interviews with TIME, TIME Magazine.
  7. Hackman, Michelle (November 8, 2024), Trump Advisers Ramp Up Work on Mass Deportation Push, The Wall Street Journal.
  8. Tait, Robert (November 8, 2024), Trump says vow to deport millions of undocumented people has ‘no price tag’, The Guardian.
  9. Hesson, Ted; Cooke, Kristina (November 6, 2024), Inside Trump’s plan for mass deportations – and who wants to stop him, Reuters.
  10. Kellerman, Ben; Rosenberg, Mica; Hesson, Ted (July 8, 2023), Biden is now deporting more people than Trump, Reuters.